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Real World Evidence for the Laffer Curve, even from the Government of Washington, DC
by Dan MitchellPresident Obama is proposing a series of major tax increases. His budget envisions higher tax rates on personal income, increased double taxation of dividends and capital gains, and a big increase in the death tax. His health care plan includes significant tax hikes, including the imposition of the Medicare payroll tax on capital income – thus exacerbating the tax code’s bias against saving and investment. It is unclear why the White House is pursuing these punitive policies. The President said during the 2008 campaign that he favored soak-the-rich taxes even if they did not raise revenue, but his budget predicts the proposals will raise lots of additional money.
Because of Laffer Curve reasons, it is highly unlikely that all of this additional revenue will materialize if the President’s budget is approved. The core insight of the Laffer Curve is not that all tax increases lose money and that all tax cuts raise revenues. That only happens in rare circumstances. Instead, the Laffer Curve simply reveals that higher tax rates will lead to less taxable income (or that lower tax rates will lead to more taxable income) and that it is an empirical matter to figure out the degree to which the change in tax revenue resulting from the shift in the tax rate is offset by the change in tax revenue caused by the shift in the other direction for taxable income. This should be an uncontroversial proposition, and was explained in the video from this post. But since many comments and emails expressed disbelief, this video looks at the real world evidence.
Interestingly, the DC government (which certainly is not a bastion of free-market thinking) has just acknowledged the Laffer Curve. As the excerpt below illustrates, an increase in the cigarette tax did not raise the amount of revenue that local politicians expected. The evidence is so strong that the city’s budget experts warn that a further increase will reduce revenue (for further evidence, see here, here, and here):
One of the gap-closing measures for the FY 2010 budget was an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes from $2.00 to $2.50 per pack. The 50 cent increase in the cigarette tax rate was projected to increase revenue but also reduce volume. Collections year-to-date point to a more severe drop in volumes than projected. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Maryland smokers who were purchasing in DC in FY 2008, because the tax rate in the District was less than the tax rate in Maryland, have shifted purchases back to Maryland now that the tax rate in the District is higher. Virginia analyzed the impact of demand when the federal rate went up by $0.61 in April and has been surprised that demand is much stronger than they had projected–raising the possibility that purchasing in DC has moved across the river. Whatever the actual cause, because of the lower than anticipated collections, the estimate for cigarette tax revenue is revised downwards by $15.4 million in FY 2010 and $15.2 million in FY 2011. Given that cigarette tax rates in neighboring jurisdictions are now lower than that of the District, future increases in the tax rate will likely generate less revenue rather than more.
The end of easing, bizarrely, may keep front-end rates low. The disruptive impact that the expiration of liquidity facilities globally brings to the market will continue for the time being. In Exhibit 2, a graphic we’ve shown before, the inner counter-clockwise cycle represents a model of deleveraging as central banks were hiking rates during 2004-06 to remove liquidity and promote orderly deleveraging. The outer clockwise rotating cycle that started in late 2007 illustrates the addition of liquidity as a counter force to what became a rapid and disorderly period of deleveraging that culminated in the subprime crisis.
But can the market sustain itself without public-sector help? It may be too close to call, and this is why central banks may be reluctant to hike rates and could end up keeping them lower for longer. We expect to see periods of stress in the market that will keep central bankers from meaningfully hiking rates. Yesterday it was Dubai, today it is Greece, and tomorrow it may be some place else. As we see it, the market is far from being stable enough to bear a meaningful withdrawal of liquidity in the form of rate hikes from central banks. However, we do expect that liquidity facilities will expire – and since those facilities supported longer-term assets, we see this as akin to central banks hiking from the back-end first. Put this all together, and we see steeper curves and higher rates. Namely, we like owning front-end forward rates and being short back-end forwards against it. Bizarrely, the end of easing may keep front-end rates lower for longer.
While the logic is sound, the one thing about this market is that it hates logic. And the other thing is that no matter how convincing the argument, absent material marginal buyers, the trade will fizzle. We merely need to look at China's recent UST purchasing patterns, whose recent lack of desire to roll Bills (in essence offloading short-dated paper) is likely a greater concern to the trading community than the Fed's end of MBS purchasing (it is one thing to no longer "buy", at least overtly, it is something very different to sell). Yet the biggest risk, in our view, is that just as everyone was putting the steepener trade on at about the same time as accounts were buying sovereign CDS, not in January, but in August of last year, so now the more prudent money-managers are unwinding and possibly entering duration-neutral flattening positions. Yet, if sovereign CDS trading is experiencing unprecedented witch hunts, wait until the 3-second political attention span turns to those unpatriotic hedge funds who dare to put flatteners on. In a normal world, we would laught this caution off. Alas, we live in a world that is anything but.